Both informed by and fueling the Trad Wife movement, MAGA beauty standards, not the least MAGA policies, are the order of the day in D.C., where needle-, peroxide- and undoubtedly Ozempic-assisted glow-ups have become almost prerequisites to power or proximity to it, but what the second presidency of Donald Trump means for the beauty industry supplying products to its adherents is uncertain. Industry insiders’ opinions vacillate between unbridled enthusiasm and profound concern, but all agree the changing of the presidential guard feels dramatic and will have wide-ranging ripple effects on business.

Tariffs in particular have been foremost on brand founders and executives’ minds since Trump triumphed in the Republican presidential primary. This week, Trump pledged to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S., a much lower rate than the 60% he proposed on the campaign trail, and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1.

The cost of covering the tariffs could slice into product margins in a U.S. beauty industry highly dependent on China and result in hikes on prices paid by consumers. According to data provided by market research firm NielsenIQ to the publication Vogue Business, just 7% of personal care and beauty products sold in the United States are made domestically, and they carry a 5.5% premium. Even the products made in the U.S. source packaging from China.

“Many [independent beauty brand] founders rely on importing glass from countries like Italy and China due to the limited availability of stateside manufacturers,” says Aggie Burnett, founder and beauty brand advisor at AB Creative, adding the cheerful caveat, “There’s hope that, in the long run, this might spur the growth of domestic glass manufacturing and foster a new industry here in the U.S.”

Should beauty brands confront greater input costs, beauty marketing consultant Bethany Ramsay imagines that the industry’s workforce would suffer. “Hiring may halt. and after the state of the job market in 2024, that thought is alarming,” she says. “It could negatively impact existing employees of beauty brands, who are most likely already spread quite thin, with more layoffs, decreased income and potentially diminished team sizes in order to make up for the added expenses if brands stick with their trusted international suppliers.”

A bull market could help mitigate heightened costs, and some industry insiders predict it will happen under Trump. Executives in the country largely have a positive view of the business implications of Trump’s administration. Late last year, a poll by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants showed 67% are confident about the economic outlook for 2025.

Stephanie Liu, founder and CEO of Levitate Foundry, an e-commerce agency with DIBS Beauty, Orabella, Playground and Makeup by Mario on its client roster, counts herself among the confident executives. She believes consumers and brands will ramp up their spending as they become assured of economic resilience under Trump. Over the year and a half during the presidency of Joe Biden, she detected extreme caution from brands and consumers, who primarily purchased only when promotions were running.

“Brands are going to be less stingy starting in the next few months. Then, the more ads we run and we pump into the ecosystem, the more that the economy has, the more consumers spend, the better it is for the private companies, the better it is for investments and institutional money,” she says. “I think it’s going to be amazing for the next year and a half.”

Not everyone in beauty is as sure as Liu. She’s observed various responses to Trump, with executives at big beauty companies cautiously optimistic, but worried about consumers’ desire to spend, and founders of independent beauty brands eager to get the Trump 2.0 era humming because they envision it ushering in an improved fundraising environment. “They are coming out of 18 months of no dry powder, very few investors investing in early-stage beauty,” says Liu. “It’s been really, really rough for early-stage beauty brands…Mid-stage to early-stage companies are really excited.”

Unlike in the wellness industry, where there are several MAHA-associated vocal Trump allies such as Casey Means, founder of Levels Health, and her brother Calley, co-founder of Truemed, excitement for Trump within the beauty industry has generally not erupted into open advocacy of him. There are exceptions, however. Ronald Lauder, the youngest son of Estée Lauder and recent The Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. retiree, is a prominent Republican donor, and Jena Covello and Paula Hoss, founders of the beauty brands Agent Nateur and CLN&DRTY, respectively, have pronounced their affection for MAGA on social media.

In contrast, fashion brands and executives are beginning to be overt in their relationships with the Trump circle. Bernard Arnault, CEO and chair of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the luxury goods behemoth that owns Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi, Givenchy, Celine, Kenzo, and Loewe along with Sephora, Make Up For Ever and Benefit Cosmetics, attended the inauguration. Ivanka Trump and Usha Vance wore Oscar de la Renta dresses to it, eliciting an online backlash to the brand from Trump detractors. Beauty industry insiders think beauty brands may increasingly follow suit.

Peter Clarkson, co-founder of skincare brand Proteger, says, “Kim Kardashian posting Melania on her [Instagram] Story [the day after the inauguration] is all the trend forecasting we needed, not to mention we went into this transition of power with the Old Money aesthetic and shows like ‘Succession’ dominating pop culture.”

Ramsay instructs beauty brands that they can’t merely dabble in Trump affiliations. She suggests that, if they strike partnerships with the president and his acolytes, they’ll be perceived as fully espousing the MAGA agenda and likely win converts and loyalty from aligned consumers, even if they risk alienating those with Democratic tendencies. She says, “It will be incredibly interesting to see how this unfolds.”

The opposite holds true, of course. Brands that lean into Democratic ties and related causes will catch ire from MAGA partisans in a way they may not have previously since Trump support has a broader penetration in the public discourse today. So far, their reaction to Trump’s return to the White House has been muted, and it remains to be seen whether or how MAGA counterprogramming will manifest in the beauty industry or be composed by its consumers.

Consumers may be too exhausted by the perpetual rage machines their algorithms have become to commit to bold actions. Rachel Roberts Mattox, a beauty brand developer and advisor, says they’re “tired of fear-based marketing and misinformation, tired of feeling like we’re in some sort of tech-driven matrix we cannot escape. In response, consumers are craving intimacy, human connection and moments of joy, not necessarily grand gestures…Brands that bring a little levity and spark joy will fulfill a collective craving.”

There are a few emerging signs, though, of consumers and brands taking anti-MAGA baby steps as Trump’s second presidential act commences. Calling for boycotts of companies that don’t embrace diversity and inclusion, TikTok content creator Da’vion Tatum declared in a video posted on Jan. 21, “If you do not want a diverse workplace, then you do not deserve a diverse consumer base.”

In an Instagram announcement of the temporary closure of its e-commerce website, the fragrance brand Fūm wrote, “I plan to divest from all Meta apps in the future due to their anti-democracy policy changes.” Meta has decided to eliminate fact-checking of Facebook and Instagram content. Trump pointed to his threats against the company and CEO Mark Zuckerberg as “probably” the reason for the fact-checking backtracking.