In the first nine months of the year, prestige fragrance sales rose 6%, while mass-market fragrances, accounting for roughly 10% of the category, jumped 17%, according to data from market research firm Circana. By comparison, for the full year in 2024, fragrance sales increased 12% in prestige and 9% in the mass market.

In the all-important fourth quarter, which typically drives roughly 40% of annual fragrance sales, Circana expects the category to post low single-digit growth and surpass $4 billion in United States sales. The firm anticipates demand will be bifurcated between premium and affordable tiers, with higher juice concentrations such as parfums on one end and lower-priced formats like minis and body sprays on the other. While prestige fragrance dominates the category overall, Circana predicts mass-market fragrance will play an outsized role in holiday gifting.

Against that backdrop, we were curious how fragrance company founders and executives see the category evolving. For the latest edition of our ongoing series posing questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 14 of them the following: What fragrance trends will rise next year? What trends will be over?