Beauty deal volume dipped roughly 6.7%, according to investment bank Capstone Partners, a far gentler slowdown than the broader consumer sector, and the year saw several headline-grabbing transactions that reset valuation benchmarks. However, the strong M&A surge many expected didn’t materialize. Private equity stayed selective, some closely watched brands never traded, and strategics drove the majority of activity.

In 2026, beauty dealmaking could be meaningfully different. Tariff uncertainty has begun to ease, interest rates have fallen following three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, and beauty continues to outperform the wider consumer market. Together, these forces could strengthen buyer confidence.

With divestitures mounting as strategics prune their portfolios and capital becoming less constrained, many industry insiders believe 2026 could unlock accelerated M&A activity. Yet, there are reasons to temper enthusiasm. An AI correction could have profound consequences for the broader economy, and if consumer sentiment weakens further, even beauty’s vaunted resilience could come under pressure.

Against this backdrop of optimism mixed with caution, for the latest edition of our ongoing series posing questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 17 investors, investment bankers and others the following: What are your top three predictions for beauty M&A in 2026? And based on where the market is heading, what should emerging beauty brands know about today’s funding environment, and how should they approach it?