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Ulta Beauty's CEO Says Beauty Is Cooling Off. Should Everyone Panic?

Two months into Ulta Beauty's fiscal year, CEO Dave Kimbell told analysts at a J.P. Morgan conference on Wednesday last week, “We have planned for moderation in total category growth to kind of the mid-single-digit range. What we’ve seen so far is a slowdown in the total category across price points and …
Rachel Brown·April 10, 2024·2 min read
The 30-second read
Two months into Ulta Beauty’s fiscal year, CEO Dave Kimbell told analysts at a J.P. Morgan conference on Wednesday last week, “We have planned for moderation in total category growth to kind of the mid-single-digit range. What we’ve seen so far is a slowdown in the total category across price points and segments. That’s a bit earlier and a bit bigger than we thought.”

Although a beauty slowdown isn’t unexpected—as Kimbell mentions, Ulta, which forecasts same-store sales increases to ring in at 4% to 5% for the year, has planned for it, and consumer surveys by consultancy McKinsey & Co. have detected caution among beauty shoppers—Kimbell’s characterization of it being sharper than anticipated sent Ulta’s share price tumbling about 15%, and the negative impacts extended to stocks at other beauty companies such as E.l.f. Beauty, Estée Lauder and Coty.

Since Wednesday last week, Ulta’s share price has only recovered roughly 2% of its losses, reflecting uncertainty about the state of the beauty industry that could have widespread implications, not only for big beauty companies like Ulta and its publicly traded peers, but for smaller beauty brands, both those Ulta carries and those it doesn’t.

To get a broader sense of how beauty is faring, for the latest edition of Beauty Independent’s ongoing series asking questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 16 beauty entrepreneurs, investors, executives, consultants and others the following questions: Do you believe beauty industry sales are slowing down? If so, how do you think beauty brands should respond?

The players

5 mentioned
Brand

Estée Lauder

Brand

AS Beauty

Founded2019
HQNew York, New York, United States
Revenue Range$150M+
Brand

E.l.f. Beauty

HQSan Francisco Bay Area, California, United States
Retailer

Ulta Beauty

Retailer

Ulta Beauty