Without lip products, it would have slumped. Instead, growth was modest in the first nine months of the year, with Circana estimating the makeup category posted a 3% gain in prestige and a 1% increase in mass. While lip products outperformed every other segment, the market research firm also spotted early signs of life in eye makeup, with the subcategory up in prestige, a reversal from its decline in 2024.

Makeup brands and retailers are hoping those green shoots in eye makeup signal the start of a stronger makeup cycle ahead. Some expect a return to boldness and experimentation after the dominance of the “clean girl” aesthetic, which emphasized effortlessness, glow and skincare-infused formulas.

POV Beauty, the makeup brand launched by TikTok mega-influencer Mikayla Nogueira in 2025, is built for a post–clean girl moment. Its enviable out-of-the-gate sales—$1 million in just eight minutes—suggest there’s real appetite for that point of view. Sephora appears to be positioning for a potential glam revival as well, stocking expert-led brands like Hung Vanngo Beauty and M.Ph by Mary Phillips that lean more full beat than barely there.

Against that backdrop, we wondered which shifts founders and executives believe will reshape makeup next. For this edition of our ongoing series posing questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 16 of them the following: What makeup trends will rise in 2026? What trends will be over?